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The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes.
A black swan is a relatively fantastic event with 3 most important traits: it’s miles unpredictable; it consists of a big effect; and, after the reality, we concoct a proof that makes it seem much less random, and greater predictable, than it changed into. The outstanding achievement of Google became a black swan; so turned into 11th of September. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to activities in our very own private lives.
Why will we not well known the phenomenon of black swans until once they occur? a part of the solution, consistent with Taleb, is that people are hardwired to research specifics when they need to be focused on generalities. We focus on things we already realize and time and time once more fail to take into consideration what we don’t recognize. we’re, therefore, not able to clearly estimate opportunities, too susceptible to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding people who can imagine the “impossible.”
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto) Information
- Series: Incerto (Book 2) ( Download PDF :
) - Hardcover: 366 pages
- ISBN-10: 1400063515
- Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- ISBN-13: 978-1400063512
- Publisher: Random House; 1 edition (April 17, 2007)
- Language: English
About the Author
Robert Kirkman is a New York Times bestselling author known for being the cultural zeitgeist of the comic book industry. He maintains one prerogative in every undertaking: quality. It is Kirkman’s belief that good people who produce good writing and good ideas make comics people love. Kirkman was recently made partner at Image Comics, and continues to revive the industry with refreshing new characters. AMC is adapting his bestselling series, The Walking Dead, into a TV series (set to debut in October 2010), and his books are among the most popular on the iPhone and iPad’s “Comics” app.
Amanda Cabot is an accomplished author under various pen names and a popular speaker. The author of Paper Roses, Scattered Petals, Tomorrow’s Garden, and Summer of Promise, she is also a charter member of Romance Writers of America, the cofounder of its New Jersey chapter, a member of the ACFW, and an avid traveler. She lives in Wyoming.
Laurel Thatcher Ulrich was born in Sugar City, Idaho. She holds degrees from the University of New Hampshire, University of Utah, and Simmons College. As a MacArthur Fellow, Laurel worked on the PBS documentary based on A Midwife’s Tale. She is immediate past president of the Mormon History Association.
Robert Masello is an award-winning journalist, television writer, and bestselling author of many novels and nonfiction books. His most recent novels, published in more than a dozen languages, include The Romanov Cross, The Medusa Amulet, and Blood and Ice. His guide to composition, Robert’s Rules of Writing, has been adopted in many college classrooms. His articles, essays, and reviews have appeared in prominent publications such as the Los Angeles Times, New York magazine, People, Newsday, and the Washington Post. A long-standing member of the Writers Guild of America, he has taught and lectured at colleges and universities nationwide, including the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism. He also served as visiting lecturer in literature at Claremont McKenna College for six years. A native of Evanston, Illinois, he now lives and works in Santa Monica, California.
Daniel Kahneman is Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology Emeritus at Princeton University and Professor of Psychology and Public Affairs Emeritus at Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. He received the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his pioneering work with Amos Tversky on decision-making.
Kerry Lonsdale believes life is more exciting with twists and turns, which may be why she enjoys dropping her characters into unexpected scenarios and foreign settings. She graduated from California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, and is a founder of the Women’s Fiction Writers Association, an online community of authors located across the globe. She resides in Northern California with her husband, two children, and an aging golden retriever who’s convinced she’s still a puppy. Everything We Keep is Kerry’s first novel.